Tuesday, January 24, 2012
State of the Union Address
Barack Obama
The word of the year is fair. President Obama delivered an effective and eloquent State of the Union Address that laid out his goals for the year and called Congress into action. Obama said the defining issue of the time is keeping the promise that everyone has the ability to work oneself up. The issue is fairness. The President presented ideas that would certainly level the playing field but will infuriate conservatives. Obama addressed the issue of outsourcing jobs, saying tax cuts for companies who outsource will be cut and tax benefits will be created for companies that are creating domestic jobs. This is just common sense. When we have so many unemployed people in the U.S., companies should not be able to outsource labor and worse out domestic issues. Obama said manufacturing will come back because it is becoming economically beneficial. He addressed the business owners watching and said, "Bring jobs back to your country and your country will do its best to help you." The speech then turned to the broken tax code. Using the popular Warren Buffet example, Obama proposed improvements to the current tax code. These changes would encourage manufacturing companies to set up in poor neighborhoods and create jobs and establish a base-line tax for all multi-national companies. These measures will add to Obama's goal from 2 years ago to double U.S. exports by 2015. To keep international trade fair, Obama proposed the formation of a Trade Enforcement Unit. This group would investigate counter fit goods and unsafe products. The purpose to to prevent any foreign country from getting an advantage on the U.S. Another proposition for fairness in this State of the Union was to create forcused skills training for Americans that will lead directly to a job. This will fix the problem of the 2 million trained workers in the U.S. who cannot find jobs within their skill-sets. This plan would convert community colleges into community career centers, utilizing programs we already have and tweaking them to accomidate the current needs of workers. Obama expounded on his training plan with ideas on higher level education. He began with, "every person in this room can point to a teacher who changed their life," teaching really is the most important aspect, so it makes most sense to improve the quality of teachers. That is a very reasonable goal, putting good teachers in the classroom is no more expensive than putting bad teachers in the classroom. As any student knows, a teacher can make or break a class and make all the difference. Obamas next call to the states is less likely to be well-received. He said all states should require students to stay in school through the completion of high school or until 18. I cannot see states heading this suggestion because it is such an over-stretch of executive federal power. The President also presented plans to make college more affordable. Making college an option for more willing students will improve the quality of the workforce and give high schoolers more incentive. President Obama's 2012 State of the Union Address presented many plans that will give every citizen a closer-to-fair chance to succeed.
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Gingrich the Divider
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Meet the Press
David Gregory, interviewer
The morning after his win in South Carolina, Newt Gingrich caught up with David Gregory to discuss his prospects. Gingrich emerged from the South Carolina scramble, as Gregory calls it, with 40% of the vote, leaving Romney with only 28%. Gingrich says the South Carolina Primary sent two big messages to the candidates and the nation. The first is that there is real pain in the lives of the unemployed and that creating jobs is a central issue in this election. The second is that many people are angry at the national government. This is somewhat ironic because Gingrich is the most entangled with the national government out of all the GOP candidates. Expanding on this irony, Gregory asked Gingrich how he has been playing this "inside-outside game." After taking some offense to being called a lobbyist, Gingrich explained that all of his advising to Freddie Mac was in line with the legislation he backed. The conversation then turned to Gingrich's electability. According to an MSNBC poll, Gingrich has a 56% unfaverability rating. There have also been statements from those who he has worked with that he is risky and erratic. Because beating Obama is the top priority of the Republican Party, Gingrich being dislikable could severely hurt that cause. There are many who argue that Obama won the South Carolina because it halted Romney's momentum and Gingrich is unlikely to win over independent voters. Gingrich is respected as a smart candidate, but his electability is scarce. The problem for the Republican Party, is that he can hurt Romeny's chances and divide the party at a time it is striving to come together.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032608/vp/46090515#46090515
Meet the Press
David Gregory, interviewer
The morning after his win in South Carolina, Newt Gingrich caught up with David Gregory to discuss his prospects. Gingrich emerged from the South Carolina scramble, as Gregory calls it, with 40% of the vote, leaving Romney with only 28%. Gingrich says the South Carolina Primary sent two big messages to the candidates and the nation. The first is that there is real pain in the lives of the unemployed and that creating jobs is a central issue in this election. The second is that many people are angry at the national government. This is somewhat ironic because Gingrich is the most entangled with the national government out of all the GOP candidates. Expanding on this irony, Gregory asked Gingrich how he has been playing this "inside-outside game." After taking some offense to being called a lobbyist, Gingrich explained that all of his advising to Freddie Mac was in line with the legislation he backed. The conversation then turned to Gingrich's electability. According to an MSNBC poll, Gingrich has a 56% unfaverability rating. There have also been statements from those who he has worked with that he is risky and erratic. Because beating Obama is the top priority of the Republican Party, Gingrich being dislikable could severely hurt that cause. There are many who argue that Obama won the South Carolina because it halted Romney's momentum and Gingrich is unlikely to win over independent voters. Gingrich is respected as a smart candidate, but his electability is scarce. The problem for the Republican Party, is that he can hurt Romeny's chances and divide the party at a time it is striving to come together.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032608/vp/46090515#46090515
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Gringrich's Debate
January 19, 2012
L.A. Times
Seema Mehta and John Hoeffel
"Gingrich rips into media, then his rivals, in GOP debate"
The final GOP debate before the South Carolina Primary was a heated and tense one. Gingrich was at the center of the fry when angry accusations directed at the press, a face-off with Santorum, and rebutting personal attacks. Moderator John King asked Gringrich about reports that his second wife sought an open marriage. Gingrich replied curtly and with a look that could scare lions. Next, Gingrich and Santorum debated social issues, both trying to win over the conservative vote. They are both trying to edge Romney out. The issue of the size of the candidate's pay checks and tax returns was another hot topic of the debate. Gingrich pressed Romney to release his tax returns. Gingrich thinks that Romney's tax returns will offend many voters and make him a less likable candidate. Everyone knows Romney makes a lot of money, so his tax returns will only convince people that his taxes are in order. All in all the debate was more of the usual attacks on Romney.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-gop-debate-20120120,0,5109569.story
L.A. Times
Seema Mehta and John Hoeffel
"Gingrich rips into media, then his rivals, in GOP debate"
The final GOP debate before the South Carolina Primary was a heated and tense one. Gingrich was at the center of the fry when angry accusations directed at the press, a face-off with Santorum, and rebutting personal attacks. Moderator John King asked Gringrich about reports that his second wife sought an open marriage. Gingrich replied curtly and with a look that could scare lions. Next, Gingrich and Santorum debated social issues, both trying to win over the conservative vote. They are both trying to edge Romney out. The issue of the size of the candidate's pay checks and tax returns was another hot topic of the debate. Gingrich pressed Romney to release his tax returns. Gingrich thinks that Romney's tax returns will offend many voters and make him a less likable candidate. Everyone knows Romney makes a lot of money, so his tax returns will only convince people that his taxes are in order. All in all the debate was more of the usual attacks on Romney.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-gop-debate-20120120,0,5109569.story
Perry Took One For the Team
January 19, 2012
The Chicago Tribune
Maeve Reston
"Why Rick Perry Stayed in the Race--and Why He Left"
Perry dropped out of the GOP Primary for a few reasons, some even seem noble. Firstly, Perry chose to leave the race because conservatives need to throw their weight behind a single candidate and he though the ticket was splitting the conservative vote too much. This really is a noble decision, Perry left for the betterment of the Republican Party because he saw the field has being too similar. On the other hand, Perry was not really hurting Santorum and Gingrich's numbers; they were hurting his. So, maybe less noble? Perry had also exhausted most of his funds in a last minute bid for South Carolina. After a disappointing fifth-place finish in Iowa, Perry decided he was financially able and determined enough to continue his campaign. However, yesterday Perry come to the decision that his campaign was not financially sustainable. In his announcement, Perry backed Gingrich as the best conservative candidate. Perry's aides have even said that his belief that Gingrich is a similar and better candidate played a large roll in his decision to drop out. Perhaps Perry is aiming to be Gingrich's Vice President?
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/la-pn-rick-perry-stayed-in-the-raceand-why-he-left-20120119,0,6207372.story
The Chicago Tribune
Maeve Reston
"Why Rick Perry Stayed in the Race--and Why He Left"
Perry dropped out of the GOP Primary for a few reasons, some even seem noble. Firstly, Perry chose to leave the race because conservatives need to throw their weight behind a single candidate and he though the ticket was splitting the conservative vote too much. This really is a noble decision, Perry left for the betterment of the Republican Party because he saw the field has being too similar. On the other hand, Perry was not really hurting Santorum and Gingrich's numbers; they were hurting his. So, maybe less noble? Perry had also exhausted most of his funds in a last minute bid for South Carolina. After a disappointing fifth-place finish in Iowa, Perry decided he was financially able and determined enough to continue his campaign. However, yesterday Perry come to the decision that his campaign was not financially sustainable. In his announcement, Perry backed Gingrich as the best conservative candidate. Perry's aides have even said that his belief that Gingrich is a similar and better candidate played a large roll in his decision to drop out. Perhaps Perry is aiming to be Gingrich's Vice President?
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/la-pn-rick-perry-stayed-in-the-raceand-why-he-left-20120119,0,6207372.story
Iowa Caucus: Take Two
January 19, 2012
The Chicago Tribune
John Hoeffel
"Santorum touts Iowa "win," blasts Gingrich ahead of debate"
Iowa...miscounted? In first grade math you learn yo double check calculations, yet Iowa must have forgotten this on January 3rd. The margin of eight votes between Romney and Santorum was corrected to thirty four votes with Santorum coming out on top. With such a tight result, those forty two votes make all the difference. Changing who won the Iowa Caucus bashes Romney's momentum, undermines his win in New Hampshire, and gives Santorum momentum. Santorum gloated over his new win in Iowa while on the road in South Carolina. Strangely, he focused on bashing Gingrich over Romney. Gingrich and Santorum are grappling to win the conservative vote in South Carolina and beat Romney. Right now Gingrich is rising in the polls while Santorum is falling, it remains uncertain if Santorum's Iowa win will make a difference. Santorum is marketing himself as the true conservative candidate, saying Gingrich shelves important conservative issues instead of facing and fixing them. Santorum paints himself as a consistent conservative with strong core values. This is not false. Santorum has always had very socially conservative views, even if they are crazy. Santorum's win in Iowa may not have any real effect in South Carolina because it is just too late. If the correction had been made before the New Hampshire Primary, Santorum would have picked up Romney's momentum, but the time lapse could potentially nullify Santorum's win.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politicsnow/la-pn-santorum-iowa-win-gingrich-20120119,0,6770941.story
The Chicago Tribune
John Hoeffel
"Santorum touts Iowa "win," blasts Gingrich ahead of debate"
Iowa...miscounted? In first grade math you learn yo double check calculations, yet Iowa must have forgotten this on January 3rd. The margin of eight votes between Romney and Santorum was corrected to thirty four votes with Santorum coming out on top. With such a tight result, those forty two votes make all the difference. Changing who won the Iowa Caucus bashes Romney's momentum, undermines his win in New Hampshire, and gives Santorum momentum. Santorum gloated over his new win in Iowa while on the road in South Carolina. Strangely, he focused on bashing Gingrich over Romney. Gingrich and Santorum are grappling to win the conservative vote in South Carolina and beat Romney. Right now Gingrich is rising in the polls while Santorum is falling, it remains uncertain if Santorum's Iowa win will make a difference. Santorum is marketing himself as the true conservative candidate, saying Gingrich shelves important conservative issues instead of facing and fixing them. Santorum paints himself as a consistent conservative with strong core values. This is not false. Santorum has always had very socially conservative views, even if they are crazy. Santorum's win in Iowa may not have any real effect in South Carolina because it is just too late. If the correction had been made before the New Hampshire Primary, Santorum would have picked up Romney's momentum, but the time lapse could potentially nullify Santorum's win.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politicsnow/la-pn-santorum-iowa-win-gingrich-20120119,0,6770941.story
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Christie Weighs In
Sunday, January 15, 2012
Meet the Press
David Gregory, interviewer
Governor Christ Christie of New Jersey
Gregory sat down with the extremely Governor Christie to discuss the GOP Primary and hear his speculations. Christie is an avid supporter of Romney and consistently praised his intelligence and electability. When asked, Christie said he advised Romney to release his tax returns to the public to end the speculations. Christie reasoned that withholding the information was only giving opposing candidates and Democrats room to make false assumptions. He said Romney has been "extraordinarily successful" in his career and voters respect him for that. But that has not proved to be true. In many debates, other candidates have used Romney's bank account to imply his self-interest and misconduct while working for Bain Capital. Releasing his tax returns will only bring up more prejudice against his money, because there is a tendency to resent those who have what you want. Christie next talked about the need for s governor to be in the White House. He said legislators don't understand how to use executive powers to get things down. Christie thinks that this is the right kind of experience for a presidential candidate because the position is starkly different to that of a Senator or Representative. Finally, Gregory asked Christie if he could consider being Romney's Vice President. Christie is loyal to New Jersey and "sees himself still being the Governor of New Jersey in November." However, he would consider it out of duty to his country, but he does not see himself as a Vice President. Christie is a very well-liked and influential figure and his support of Romney has been unwaveringly enthusiastic, which has greatly helped Romney's popularity.
Meet the Press
David Gregory, interviewer
Governor Christ Christie of New Jersey
Gregory sat down with the extremely Governor Christie to discuss the GOP Primary and hear his speculations. Christie is an avid supporter of Romney and consistently praised his intelligence and electability. When asked, Christie said he advised Romney to release his tax returns to the public to end the speculations. Christie reasoned that withholding the information was only giving opposing candidates and Democrats room to make false assumptions. He said Romney has been "extraordinarily successful" in his career and voters respect him for that. But that has not proved to be true. In many debates, other candidates have used Romney's bank account to imply his self-interest and misconduct while working for Bain Capital. Releasing his tax returns will only bring up more prejudice against his money, because there is a tendency to resent those who have what you want. Christie next talked about the need for s governor to be in the White House. He said legislators don't understand how to use executive powers to get things down. Christie thinks that this is the right kind of experience for a presidential candidate because the position is starkly different to that of a Senator or Representative. Finally, Gregory asked Christie if he could consider being Romney's Vice President. Christie is loyal to New Jersey and "sees himself still being the Governor of New Jersey in November." However, he would consider it out of duty to his country, but he does not see himself as a Vice President. Christie is a very well-liked and influential figure and his support of Romney has been unwaveringly enthusiastic, which has greatly helped Romney's popularity.
Super PAC's Ad Gone Wrong
January 16, 2012
The Huffington Post
Calvin Woodward
"Mit Romney Bain Capital Experience: Gingrich-Allied Super PAC Film Flubs Facts"
An ad, meant to ridicule Romney, was so wrong that Gingrich asked the group to take the ad down. There is raising suspicion that Romney’s work at Bain Capital was not as rosy as he has made it out to be. There is doubt that he really created 100,000 jobs while working there. The Winning for Our Future PAC decided to produce the 28-minute video “King of Bain: When Romney Comes to Town” to highlight this fallacy in Romney’s campaign. The film twists interviews with former employees and numbers to imply resentment and mismanagement that does not really exist. The film blames Romney for the shutdown of KB Toys, even though he was not employed by Bain Capital at the time of its involvement with KB Toys. This ad brings up a huge hole in Romney’s campaign and could have been a crippling blow for the candidate. However, the PAC got it so wrong that it managed to make people defensive of Romney. This issue has the potential to loose Romney the support of many of the unemployed in the country. If Gingrich can dismantle Romney’s claim to be a job-making machine, he will have taken his credibility and a major pillar of his campaign. However, the Winning for Our Future PAC missed this open shot. Good job. They misrepresented the issue so badly that they embarrassed Gingrich more than Romney. A simple representation of the facts should be enough to falsify a claim if it is wrong, however if the claim is write, it should have been left alone. It is now uncertain if the Winning for Our Future PAC had any traction to their claim because their credibility was lost. All in all, “King of Bain: When Romney Comes to Town” is a complete fiasco. Go back to the drawing board and try again!!
Huntsman's Out For Good
January 17, 2012
The Atlantic
James Fallows
"Finale on Huntsman 2012 (Until 2012 or So)
Huntsman's out! After skipping Iowa and an embarrassing defeat in New Hampshire, he announced he is dropping out of the GOP Primary. Huntsman has been absent from most of the GOP Primary, but he did not decide to drop out until today. Fallows synthesizes the analyses of various sources to illustrate Huntsman's options. Joseph Britt believes Huntsman will spend the next four years building up his campaign and likability. Britt thinks Huntsman is in a similar place as Romney was in 2008, when he dropped out. If Huntsman follows in Romney's footsteps: build up a PAC, write a book, and build his infrastructure, he will be a strong candidate in the 2016 election. I think Huntsman needs to focus on his domestic policy because it was his weak point in this election. One reader who likes Huntsman wrote that he greatly approved of Huntsman's sound economic leadership and foreign policy, but was perturbed by his lack of opinion on domestic issues. Perhaps, if Huntsman entered the 2016 GOP Primary as a fresh-faced diplomat, he might have had a chance. This reader does not think Huntsman has any future in GOP Primaries. Another correspondent argues that if Romney wins and looses, the Republican Party is unlikely to nominate Huntsman, who has the similar, yet worse, flaws as Romney. The vote is two to one. Looks like Huntsman is out for good.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/01/finale-on-huntsman-2016-until-2016-or-so/251485/
The Atlantic
James Fallows
"Finale on Huntsman 2012 (Until 2012 or So)
Huntsman's out! After skipping Iowa and an embarrassing defeat in New Hampshire, he announced he is dropping out of the GOP Primary. Huntsman has been absent from most of the GOP Primary, but he did not decide to drop out until today. Fallows synthesizes the analyses of various sources to illustrate Huntsman's options. Joseph Britt believes Huntsman will spend the next four years building up his campaign and likability. Britt thinks Huntsman is in a similar place as Romney was in 2008, when he dropped out. If Huntsman follows in Romney's footsteps: build up a PAC, write a book, and build his infrastructure, he will be a strong candidate in the 2016 election. I think Huntsman needs to focus on his domestic policy because it was his weak point in this election. One reader who likes Huntsman wrote that he greatly approved of Huntsman's sound economic leadership and foreign policy, but was perturbed by his lack of opinion on domestic issues. Perhaps, if Huntsman entered the 2016 GOP Primary as a fresh-faced diplomat, he might have had a chance. This reader does not think Huntsman has any future in GOP Primaries. Another correspondent argues that if Romney wins and looses, the Republican Party is unlikely to nominate Huntsman, who has the similar, yet worse, flaws as Romney. The vote is two to one. Looks like Huntsman is out for good.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/01/finale-on-huntsman-2016-until-2016-or-so/251485/
Sunday, January 15, 2012
Gingrich's Hail Mary
January 14, 2012
The Huffington Post
Julie Pace
"Newt Gingrich Addresses Past Statements On Child Labor At South Carolina Church Ahead of Primary"
Yesterday, Gingrich appeared in front of a black church. That’s never going to happen again. Although the audience is unlikely to vote in the GOP Primary, Gingrich wished to address race and class statements he has made in the past. The statements addressed were Gingrich's "assertion that poor children lack work ethic" and President Obama is a "food-stamp president." Gingrich showed no remorse and owned up to no wrongs during his appearance. Those who arrived at Johns Memorial AME Zion Church were largely unimpressed by Gingrich's bold move and many speculated that that he is likely to gain many votes for this. The Gingrich campaign has said that the South Carolina Primary is "make or break" for him, so this is a bit of a hail Mary. Blacks make up only 2% of South Carolinian voting in Saturday's Primary, but for Gingrich, every vote counts. After disappointing results in Iowa and New Hampshire, it is clear that Gingrich needs a win. But will he find it in Johns Memorial AME Zion Church? Probably not. He's unlikely to gain any one's support for this bazaar appearance. It seems like this desperate attempt at popularity will go unrewarded.
Sunday, January 8, 2012
The Recipe for Disaster
Thursday, January 5, 2012
The New York Times Video
Michael D. Shear
"Santorum has testy exchange on same-sex marriages"
Here's a recipe for disaster:
Begin by combining the college students and Santorum in a medium sized lecture hall at New England College. Stir for forty five minutes with discussion—relevant issues and intelligent questions. Now, brace yourself, introduce your controversial issue. The result will be immediate awkwardness amidst the bright red faces of all involved.
This is exactly the recipe Santorum created for himself when he addressed an assembly of college students in New Hampshire. The group attacked him about his beliefs on gay marriage. The discussion began civilly, Santorum calmly explained that allowing same-sex marriages would extend to marriages between man and comb. That's when the conversation took a turn for the worst. There followed testy questions like, "How can to possibly get from same-sex marriage to THAT?!" To which Santorum responded by reprimanding the group for turning the conversation into an immature argument. The whole this in quite difficult to watch. The ridiculous slippery slope fallacy of Santorum was only made worse by his defence of it. If you dare to attempt the recipe for disaster, I urge you desperately not to!
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/05/santorum-gets-into-testy-debate-on-gay-marriage/?ref=politics
The New York Times Video
Michael D. Shear
"Santorum has testy exchange on same-sex marriages"
Here's a recipe for disaster:
- College students (the ones with really strong, immovable opinions are best)
- A GOP Presidential candidate (lets take Santorum, he's been in the news a lot)
- Discussion
- A Controversial Issue
Begin by combining the college students and Santorum in a medium sized lecture hall at New England College. Stir for forty five minutes with discussion—relevant issues and intelligent questions. Now, brace yourself, introduce your controversial issue. The result will be immediate awkwardness amidst the bright red faces of all involved.
This is exactly the recipe Santorum created for himself when he addressed an assembly of college students in New Hampshire. The group attacked him about his beliefs on gay marriage. The discussion began civilly, Santorum calmly explained that allowing same-sex marriages would extend to marriages between man and comb. That's when the conversation took a turn for the worst. There followed testy questions like, "How can to possibly get from same-sex marriage to THAT?!" To which Santorum responded by reprimanding the group for turning the conversation into an immature argument. The whole this in quite difficult to watch. The ridiculous slippery slope fallacy of Santorum was only made worse by his defence of it. If you dare to attempt the recipe for disaster, I urge you desperately not to!
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/05/santorum-gets-into-testy-debate-on-gay-marriage/?ref=politics
Thursday, January 5, 2012
Only Three Will Survive
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
CBS News
Dante Scala, guest political scientist from University of New Hampshire
The Early Show
New Hampshire Primary Preview
The morning after the Iowa Caucus, Dante Scala shared his predictions for New Hampshire's primary on CBS News' The Early Show. Scala says only three candidates will make it out of New Hampshire (not including candidates that skip New Hampshire). Romney, enthused by his eight-vote lead, is likely to be at the head of the pack despite his difficulties in the state the last two elections. In fact, Romney has not stopped campaigning in New Hampshire since he lost there in 2008. In the 2008 GOP Primary, Romney faced extreme criticism from the other candidates when he reached New Hampshire, and suffered as a result of weak organization. Now, Romney has gotten the McCain endorsement (McCain won New Hampshire in 2008), but Scala does not predict that it will make a substantial difference. It is likely Romney will be targeted by the other candidates, and his ability to maneuver such attacks will greatly effect the vote. Romney's current focus is maintaining the lead he has, not just his narrow win in Iowa, but his front-runner status. Every other candidate has fluctuated and fallen, but Romney has remained on top of the polls. He cannot afford to slip now, because with the large target on his back, drawn by his win in Iowa, Santorum, Paul, Gingrich, and Huntsman will exacerbate any weakness. Santorum has also laid a lot of ground work in New Hampshire, he has been in the state a lot and his campaign manager is from the state. His edge will come from an intimate knowledge of the state (from his campaign manager). However, this was previously Huntsman's angle, so who will be edged out? It is likely that Santorum will have the momentum and established credibility from his success in Iowa to win New Hampshire's heart over Huntsman. Scala compares Santorum to Huckabee (who received 10% of votes in 2008) and says Santorum is likely to do as well, if not better than Huckabee. Finally, Ron Paul's strong organization will be his key in New Hampshire. Scala expects he will do very well, likely second place. But only three are expected to move on. Which three will prevail?
CBS News
Dante Scala, guest political scientist from University of New Hampshire
The Early Show
New Hampshire Primary Preview
The morning after the Iowa Caucus, Dante Scala shared his predictions for New Hampshire's primary on CBS News' The Early Show. Scala says only three candidates will make it out of New Hampshire (not including candidates that skip New Hampshire). Romney, enthused by his eight-vote lead, is likely to be at the head of the pack despite his difficulties in the state the last two elections. In fact, Romney has not stopped campaigning in New Hampshire since he lost there in 2008. In the 2008 GOP Primary, Romney faced extreme criticism from the other candidates when he reached New Hampshire, and suffered as a result of weak organization. Now, Romney has gotten the McCain endorsement (McCain won New Hampshire in 2008), but Scala does not predict that it will make a substantial difference. It is likely Romney will be targeted by the other candidates, and his ability to maneuver such attacks will greatly effect the vote. Romney's current focus is maintaining the lead he has, not just his narrow win in Iowa, but his front-runner status. Every other candidate has fluctuated and fallen, but Romney has remained on top of the polls. He cannot afford to slip now, because with the large target on his back, drawn by his win in Iowa, Santorum, Paul, Gingrich, and Huntsman will exacerbate any weakness. Santorum has also laid a lot of ground work in New Hampshire, he has been in the state a lot and his campaign manager is from the state. His edge will come from an intimate knowledge of the state (from his campaign manager). However, this was previously Huntsman's angle, so who will be edged out? It is likely that Santorum will have the momentum and established credibility from his success in Iowa to win New Hampshire's heart over Huntsman. Scala compares Santorum to Huckabee (who received 10% of votes in 2008) and says Santorum is likely to do as well, if not better than Huckabee. Finally, Ron Paul's strong organization will be his key in New Hampshire. Scala expects he will do very well, likely second place. But only three are expected to move on. Which three will prevail?
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
The Fallout
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
The Washington Post
Philip Rucker and Dan Eggen
"Romney endorsed by McCain; Bachmann quits; Santorum, Gingrich take battle to N.H."
The New York Times
The twelve hours following the announcement of the Iowa Caucus results have been the most densely packed with news so far. Senator John McCain endorsed Romney's bid for the presidency. This gives Romney a significant boost after such a close win in Iowa. McCain and Romney have been political rivals for a long time, which makes this endorsement even more significant. In the coming New Hampshire primary, McCain will prove to be a huge aid to Romney. In both the 2000 and 2008 GOP Primary, McCain won New Hampshire but a significant margin and his endorsement will make an effect on his former supporters. While Romney was set on a fast track to victory, the Iowa Caucus meant something completely different for Michele Bachmann. The morning after the Iowa Caucus, Bachmann announced her decision to leave the race. She received 5% of the vote, and paired with her decreased popularity she could not maintain a campaign. Her tone in debates and interviews in the past few weeks has been increasingly indignant, verging on desperate. Bachmann has not officially endorsed a candidate and it is unclear if she will. She did not have a significant foothold in New Hampshire, so there is little dispersal to speak of regarding Bachmann supporters. Like Bachmann, Perry was forced to reevaluate his campaign after a displeasing outcome in Iowa. Unlike Bachmann, Perry has decided to stay in the race but skip New Hampshire and head straight to South Carolina to begin campaigning there. While Perry will be monopolizing his time in South Carolina, Gingrich and Santorum are predicted to be butting heads up north. The two have been political allies and personal friends for a long time, and it cannot be said if it will help or hinder their campaigns. New Hampshire should batten down the hatches and prepare for the GOP tornado which is headed north (it might even pick up Huntsman on its way).
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bachmann-cancels-campaign-events-romney-santorum-and-gingrich-head-to-new-hampshire/2012/01/04/gIQAsqiNaP_story.html
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/
The Washington Post
Philip Rucker and Dan Eggen
"Romney endorsed by McCain; Bachmann quits; Santorum, Gingrich take battle to N.H."
The New York Times
Various Authors
"The Caucus"
The twelve hours following the announcement of the Iowa Caucus results have been the most densely packed with news so far. Senator John McCain endorsed Romney's bid for the presidency. This gives Romney a significant boost after such a close win in Iowa. McCain and Romney have been political rivals for a long time, which makes this endorsement even more significant. In the coming New Hampshire primary, McCain will prove to be a huge aid to Romney. In both the 2000 and 2008 GOP Primary, McCain won New Hampshire but a significant margin and his endorsement will make an effect on his former supporters. While Romney was set on a fast track to victory, the Iowa Caucus meant something completely different for Michele Bachmann. The morning after the Iowa Caucus, Bachmann announced her decision to leave the race. She received 5% of the vote, and paired with her decreased popularity she could not maintain a campaign. Her tone in debates and interviews in the past few weeks has been increasingly indignant, verging on desperate. Bachmann has not officially endorsed a candidate and it is unclear if she will. She did not have a significant foothold in New Hampshire, so there is little dispersal to speak of regarding Bachmann supporters. Like Bachmann, Perry was forced to reevaluate his campaign after a displeasing outcome in Iowa. Unlike Bachmann, Perry has decided to stay in the race but skip New Hampshire and head straight to South Carolina to begin campaigning there. While Perry will be monopolizing his time in South Carolina, Gingrich and Santorum are predicted to be butting heads up north. The two have been political allies and personal friends for a long time, and it cannot be said if it will help or hinder their campaigns. New Hampshire should batten down the hatches and prepare for the GOP tornado which is headed north (it might even pick up Huntsman on its way).
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/bachmann-cancels-campaign-events-romney-santorum-and-gingrich-head-to-new-hampshire/2012/01/04/gIQAsqiNaP_story.html
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/
Give Or Take Eight Vote
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
The New York Times
Michael D. Shear
"Despite Close Finish, No Recount in Iowa"
The nation woke up this morning to the shock that eight Iowans separated Romney and Santorum in yesterday's caucus. Eight is such a staggeringly small number, many people shared baffled comments on the power of eight Iowans. Despite the narrow margin of the caucus, there was no recount—or need of one. Iowa uses the caucus results to assign its twenty-five delegates to the Republican convention. Simple math dictates that an eight vote difference, out of 122,255 total votes cast, does not make a significant difference in percentages. However, of Iowa's twenty-five pledged delegates, thirteen are to go to Romney and twelve to Santorum. Eight people get one delegate. On the other hand, Iowa's caucus is non-binding, which is to say that delegates are not legally obliged to vote for a specific candidate. Take this as you will, it is both fair and unfair. It must also be considered that Iowa does not represent a large enough portion of the Republican party to merit much worry among candidates about poor results. The most important aspect of the Iowa caucus is that it sets the tone for the primary election. So, the tone is set: Romney and Santorum will have to make every move count because they are neck and neck, with Ron Paul uncomfortably close on their tails.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/04/no-need-for-recount-in-iowa-caucus/?ref=politics
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/iowa
The New York Times
Michael D. Shear
"Despite Close Finish, No Recount in Iowa"
The nation woke up this morning to the shock that eight Iowans separated Romney and Santorum in yesterday's caucus. Eight is such a staggeringly small number, many people shared baffled comments on the power of eight Iowans. Despite the narrow margin of the caucus, there was no recount—or need of one. Iowa uses the caucus results to assign its twenty-five delegates to the Republican convention. Simple math dictates that an eight vote difference, out of 122,255 total votes cast, does not make a significant difference in percentages. However, of Iowa's twenty-five pledged delegates, thirteen are to go to Romney and twelve to Santorum. Eight people get one delegate. On the other hand, Iowa's caucus is non-binding, which is to say that delegates are not legally obliged to vote for a specific candidate. Take this as you will, it is both fair and unfair. It must also be considered that Iowa does not represent a large enough portion of the Republican party to merit much worry among candidates about poor results. The most important aspect of the Iowa caucus is that it sets the tone for the primary election. So, the tone is set: Romney and Santorum will have to make every move count because they are neck and neck, with Ron Paul uncomfortably close on their tails.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/04/no-need-for-recount-in-iowa-caucus/?ref=politics
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/iowa
Monday, January 2, 2012
Ready...Set...
Sunday, January 1
Meet the Press
David Gregory, interviewer
NBC
January 1, 2012 and it is officially Election Year. With the Iowa cause two days away, Gregory sat down with Chuck Todd, the NBC political director, and Matt Strawn, Iowa GOP Chairman. They decided that the outcome of the Iowa Caucus is undecided. There are many factors that can greatly sway participants. Strawn says that if the weather is mild, or at least nonthreatening, the senior citizen community will be well represented, but if it is bitterly cold or stormy, many senior citizens will stay home. Todd thinks that the speeches at the beginning of the caucus will decide much of the vote. Romney is currently ahead in the polls with the support of 24% of polled persons, but his supporters tend to be less enthusiastic than those of Paul and Santorum. While Romney might be the reason that 24% makes it to a precinct, it is very likely that they will be swayed by the speeches. Although Santorum has come out of nowhere, Todd and Strawn agree that he has gained a solid base of support and that his 21% will be less prone to drifting away. Gregory asked his guests to consider Santorum, a new front runner, but distinctive. Santorum has focused much of his advertisement money on promoting his electability. At the end of the day (or six months of brutal primaries) Republicans want a candidate who can beat Obama. Santorum is marketing himself as the man for that job. However, Strawn raised the concern that Santorum is not conservative enough for the current Republican party and the direction it is headed. This does not seem to be a major concern for Iowa voters, as Santorum is front-runner in the most recent polls. Concluding this final preliminary discussion, the group discussed Iowa's roll in the GOP Primary. Strawn, Iowa's Chairman of the GOP, naturally defends the Iowa Caucus as a significant aspect of the GOP Primary. He does not go as far as to say it decides the primary, but Strawn points out that whichever candidate has won the Iowa Caucus, has also won the primary. Gregory argues that the population of Iowa is similar to that of Pomona, California, and having the majority there is negligible. Looking at the numbers alone, winning or loosing in Iowa does not make or break a campaign, but it does, however stealthily, set the tone. Iowa is important because it is first and in thing primary, with such a mercurial cast, momentum is going to be vital. Let the race begin!
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032608/#45839916
Meet the Press
David Gregory, interviewer
NBC
January 1, 2012 and it is officially Election Year. With the Iowa cause two days away, Gregory sat down with Chuck Todd, the NBC political director, and Matt Strawn, Iowa GOP Chairman. They decided that the outcome of the Iowa Caucus is undecided. There are many factors that can greatly sway participants. Strawn says that if the weather is mild, or at least nonthreatening, the senior citizen community will be well represented, but if it is bitterly cold or stormy, many senior citizens will stay home. Todd thinks that the speeches at the beginning of the caucus will decide much of the vote. Romney is currently ahead in the polls with the support of 24% of polled persons, but his supporters tend to be less enthusiastic than those of Paul and Santorum. While Romney might be the reason that 24% makes it to a precinct, it is very likely that they will be swayed by the speeches. Although Santorum has come out of nowhere, Todd and Strawn agree that he has gained a solid base of support and that his 21% will be less prone to drifting away. Gregory asked his guests to consider Santorum, a new front runner, but distinctive. Santorum has focused much of his advertisement money on promoting his electability. At the end of the day (or six months of brutal primaries) Republicans want a candidate who can beat Obama. Santorum is marketing himself as the man for that job. However, Strawn raised the concern that Santorum is not conservative enough for the current Republican party and the direction it is headed. This does not seem to be a major concern for Iowa voters, as Santorum is front-runner in the most recent polls. Concluding this final preliminary discussion, the group discussed Iowa's roll in the GOP Primary. Strawn, Iowa's Chairman of the GOP, naturally defends the Iowa Caucus as a significant aspect of the GOP Primary. He does not go as far as to say it decides the primary, but Strawn points out that whichever candidate has won the Iowa Caucus, has also won the primary. Gregory argues that the population of Iowa is similar to that of Pomona, California, and having the majority there is negligible. Looking at the numbers alone, winning or loosing in Iowa does not make or break a campaign, but it does, however stealthily, set the tone. Iowa is important because it is first and in thing primary, with such a mercurial cast, momentum is going to be vital. Let the race begin!
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032608/#45839916
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