Only Three Will Survive

Wednesday, January 4, 2012
CBS News
Dante Scala, guest political scientist from University of New Hampshire
The Early Show
New Hampshire Primary Preview

The morning after the Iowa Caucus, Dante Scala shared his predictions for New Hampshire's primary on CBS News' The Early Show. Scala says only three candidates will make it out of New Hampshire (not including candidates that skip New Hampshire). Romney, enthused by his eight-vote lead, is likely to be at the head of the pack despite his difficulties in the state the last two elections. In fact, Romney has not stopped campaigning in New Hampshire since he lost there in 2008. In the 2008 GOP Primary, Romney faced extreme criticism from the other candidates when he reached New Hampshire, and suffered as a result of weak organization. Now, Romney has gotten the McCain endorsement (McCain won New Hampshire in 2008), but Scala does not predict that it will make a substantial difference. It is likely Romney will be targeted by the other candidates, and his ability to maneuver such attacks will greatly effect the vote. Romney's current focus is maintaining the lead he has, not just his narrow win in Iowa, but his front-runner status. Every other candidate has fluctuated and fallen, but Romney has remained on top of the polls. He cannot afford to slip now, because with the large target on his back, drawn by his win in Iowa, Santorum, Paul, Gingrich, and Huntsman will exacerbate any weakness. Santorum has also laid a lot of ground work in New Hampshire, he has been in the state a lot and his campaign manager is from the state. His edge will come from an intimate knowledge of the state (from his campaign manager). However, this was previously Huntsman's angle, so who will be edged out? It is likely that Santorum will have the momentum and established credibility from his success in Iowa to win New Hampshire's heart over Huntsman. Scala compares Santorum to Huckabee (who received 10% of votes in 2008) and says Santorum is likely to do as well, if not better than Huckabee. Finally, Ron Paul's strong organization will be his key in New Hampshire. Scala expects he will do very well, likely second place. But only three are expected to move on. Which three will prevail?